What really drives stock prices down?

What really drives stock prices? The price of stocks, just like groceries, is driven by supply and demand of people “the market” buying and selling. What drives stock prices and the stock market really is no more complicated than that.

Unless you make it more complicated, then it is for you.

What drives stock prices? It is probably one of the most asked questions we get.  It’s also one of the best questions, so I’ll share my observation of it as succinct as I can.

Many investors seem to believe stock prices, and therefore, the stock market is driven by the news of the day because they see the headlines. The press tries to construct a story of the cause and effect. But, if we look at the news headlines on any day, we observe vastly conflicting narratives and reasons for a stock market directional move. 

To be sure, here are the headlines I found online today. According to headlines, recent price action and volatility are driven by everything from Trump’s talk on a China trade deal to an overvalued stock market to factory data to the fear of missing out.

what drives stock prices

The answer is, “all of the above” drives the stock market.

The news is newly received or noteworthy information, especially about recent or relevant events. However, none of us can say which specific news actually drives stock prices. 

If you really want to know what drives stock prices, it’s just the market, doing what it does.

All information and news have the potential to drive stock prices, as does investor sentiment. The price of stocks, just like groceries, is driven by supply and demand of people buying and selling. When emotion gets imbalanced, prices trend. Yes, there’s another asymmetry!

When supply and demand are symmetrical, the price stays the same.

When supply and demand are asymmetrical, the price trends in the direction of the most pressure and enthusiasm.

After yesterday’s close, I saw someone ask, “Why did the stock market do so bad today?”

I’m guessing he saw a headline like this:

what drives the stock market causes stocks to go up and down

However, a Dow decline of -0.96% isn’t a significant drop, but if you anchor to the “-268 point drop” as most do, it may sound worse, to you.

I focus on the % change to normalize the movement. Normalizing with the percent change adjusts the values measured on different scales to a notionally standard scale. For example, the “-268 point drop” is one thing from an absolute level of 27,783, but a very different situation when the Dow was at 10,000. At today’s level of 27,783, it’s only -0.96%, but the same point drop when the index was 10,000 is -2.68%, nearly three times the single-day loss.

A -1% single-day decline in the stock index isn’t a lot by historical standards. If it feels like it is, the investor should either better inform themselves of market history or have little to no exposure to the stock market. I’ll help with the former below.

First, here are the stats. I’ll continue to use the Dow Jones Industrial Average index data.

So far, in 2019, the Dow has declined -1% or more on 18 days. When it declined -1% or more in a single day, the average drop that day was -1.7%. So, a -1% drop isn’t uncommon. It’s well within a normal range for a down day. I count about 231 trading days so far in 2019, excluding holidays, so 18 of those days falling -1% or more is nearly 10% of the days. And remember, the average drop those days was -1.7%, yesterday was only -1%.

Oh, and the worst day so far in 2019 was -3%, so it could be three times worse!

When we extend the lookback period to this time last year, the Dow declined -1% or more on 26 days. When it declined -1% or more in a single day, the average drop that day was -1.87%. Again, a -1% drop isn’t uncommon. Last December was a very volatile month.

2018 was more volatile than 2019, so far. In 2018, the Dow declined more than -1% on 35 days, and when it did, the average drop was -2%, and the worst day was -4.6%.

Investors tend to anchor to the recent past and extrapolate it into the future. That is, humans tend to expect what is happening now to continue. After a volatile 2018, most investors probably expected a volatile 2019. For many, the down days and downtrends in 2018 were a shocker after an abnormally quiet 2017. In 2017, the stock market trended up with little downside. We only saw 4 down days of -1% or more, and the average down day was only 1.3%, and the worse was 1.7%. You can probably see how many were stunned last year.

This may make you wonder when investor fear drives down stock prices, what is a “normal” down day?

It depends on the time frame and the market state over that time frame. Over the past three years, the Dow declined 57 days more than -1%, and the average down day was -1.9%, and the worst was -4.6%. That’s nearly 700 data points, so the sample size is likely enough to say we should expect a -2% down day is going to happen, and a -5% is possible.

To expand the sample size, I wondered how many -1% or more down days I’ve dealt with since I started managing our primary portfolio in May 2005. In the last fourteen years, the Dow has dropped -1% or more 427 days, and an average decline was -1.8%, and the worst down day was -9.4%! You can probably see why a -1% down day from my perspective isn’t a big deal, and the statistics of the data also confirms it’s well within a typical down day.

Of course, the trouble is larger downtrends being with down days. So, the investor’s concern isn’t just a single down day, but instead a series of down days, which is a downtrend. Before moving on to what drives stock prices and the stock market, let’s look at the downtrends.

Over the past year, the Dow Jones has declined more than -5% twice and -20% once starting last December. All of these downtrends include -1% down days. So, I’m not saying they don’t matter, but instead, the single -1% down day isn’t by itself significant.

Expanding the lookback period to the past 10 years, we see many downtrends of -5% or more. But, within those downtrends, there was only one -5.4% down day, but 245 down days over -1% with an average loss of -1.6%. Downtrends include these down days.

Next, we look all the way back to the beginning of the index data to observe its historical downside. The 1926 era Great Depression was by far the worst when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over -75%. It makes the 2007-09 period when it fell -50% look tame.

Clearly, if you invest in the stock market, you should expect to experience drops of -5% a few times a year, and -10% maybe once a year, and -20% or more at least every market cycle. If all you do is buy and hold stocks or stock funds, expect to experience a -50% because if history is a guide, it has happened before, so it could happen again.

You can probably see Why we row, not sail.

To understand what drives stock prices and how much of a loss is considered a large loss, we have to know the history. I hope I’ve shared it in a helpful way.

If there’s anything I hope individual investors get from my observations, it’s a better understanding of the risks of investing. The rewards of investing are well advertised, but the risks are what matters the most when our focus is asymmetric risk/reward. When prices of positions are trending in our favor increasing our investment account value, our concern isn’t that we are making too much money. Our interest is not giving up all the profit, which is a risk management function.

The exit, not the entry, always determines the outcome.

If you want to know what really caused the decline, I shared my opinion in a single chart that I believe sums it up best. It was good enough to make it in The Daily Shot in the Wall Street Journal. As the stock index has trended up quietly in recent weeks, volatility had contracted, as seen in the chart. As I shared, “Periods of low volatility are often followed by volatility expansions.”

Mike Shell Wall Street Journal WSJ

A few weeks ago, I also observed investor sentiment had reached an extremely optimistic level as stated in Investor sentiment signals greed is driving stocks as the U.S. stock market reaches short term risk of a pullback.

Now that stock prices have fallen two days in a row, we’ll start to see the pendulum swing from extreme greed to a middle ground. If the stock market drops a lot more, investor sentiment will become fearful, just in time for a reversal back up again.

Some favor stories, others favor data and charts, I’m a math guy, so I prefer the data and visually seeing it in charts. I’m lucky to be able to write.

What we have here isn’t a failure to communicate, the news is everywhere. I think it’s a misunderstanding of what really drives stock prices down. It’s the desire and enthusiasm to sell.

Stock price trends, just like groceries, are driven by supply and demand of people buying and selling. When sentiment gets imbalanced, prices trend in the direction that has the most force and momentum.

Yes, it’s another asymmetry! Without the asymmetry, prices would stay the same.

In the spirit of ASYMMETRY® and asymmetric risk-reward payoffs, I’m naturally trying to get the most reward from my observations by helping as many people as possible, so share it! And enter your email on the right to get immediate notices of new ASYMMETRY® Observations. We do not sell or use your email address in any other way. Also, follow me on Twitter: @MikeWShell

Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical.

Mike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor focused on asymmetric risk-reward and absolute return strategies and provides investment advice and portfolio management only to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any security. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or any recommendations made by the firm. Any opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions change.  Do not make any investment decisions based on such information as it is subject to change. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data are deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. The use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.

Can an optimistic investor sentiment measured by the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey trend higher?

Someone asked:

Can an optimistic investor sentiment in AAII Investor Sentiment Survey trend higher?

Another commented:

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is just over its long term average, so it has room to run.

Of course, bullish investor sentiment can trend higher. That is especially true when looking at just one survey measure like the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey.

Below I charted the Investor Sentiment, % Bearish and % Bullish using the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey data. Looking at the extremes, the end of 2017 was the highest % Bullish and the lowest % Bearish. If you recall, it was a very euphoric period with stocks trending up.

For another less noisy visual of this observation, I then chart the % Bullish – Bearish Spread. When it’s higher, more investors taking the survey are bullish. When it’s lower, more are bearish.

The peak optimism is clearly shown at the end of 2017 after the stock market had trended up with abnormally low volatility.

The peak cycle in pessimism was last December 2018, after stock prices had a waterfall decline.

To be sure, next, we overlay the % Bull-Bear Spread over the S&P 500 stock index. We can see visually the % Bullish reached an extremely high level in the last month of 2017 as the stock index trended up.  But, what happened afterward? aaii investor sentiment survey research backtesting

We see its lowest level over the period was the end of 2018 as stocks were in a waterfall decline.

The key is; what happened after the extreme level of bullishness?

It continued for a while, but I warned about it on January 24, 2018:

By the way, this past year is vastly different than the low volatility period I highlighted above. I was pointing out the stock index hadn’t dropped more than -4% in over a year and that was an unusually quiet condition. This past year has been more normal-looking from that perspective, with tow -5% – 7% drops after the waterfall.

Below is the trend from 2015 to 2018 to put it into perspective. Preceding 2017 were those two declines in 2015 and 2016. The beginning of which was considered a “flash crash.”

After stocks reached the second low, the trend up became smoother and smoother. Oh yeah, another blast from the past; I pointed that out, too, in November 2017.

Below is the trend from the January 26, 2018 peak through December 2018. The S&P 500 stropped -18% and more like -20% from the recovery high in October 2018 before the waterfall decline.

Here is the trend from January 1, 2017, to December 25, 2018. It’s what happened after the euphoric period. It was all but wiped out just a few months.

Can the investor sentiment get even more optimistic and drive stock prices even higher? Of course, it can! It has before! The Bull-Bear Spread is elevated, but not at its historical extremes.

But the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey isn’t necessarily a timing indicator by itself. It’s just a gauge. But, when combined with other observations I’ve discussed this week, the weight of the evidence suggests it’s a better time to reduce risk and hedge than to take on new risks as these surveys show investors are doing.

Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it. 

Those who learn from the past have the potential to gain an edge from it.  

Have a great weekend!

Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical.

Mike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor focused on asymmetric risk-reward and absolute return strategies and provides investment advice and portfolio management only to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any security. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or any recommendations made by the firm. Any opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions change.  Do not make any investment decisions based on such information as it is subject to change. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data are deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. The use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.

Implied volatility as measured by VIX indicates a volatility expansion in the near term

Implied volatility as measured by VIX indicates wider prices in the near term. The CBOE Volatility Index VIX has increased to 20, which is it’s long term average, suggesting prices will spread out to 20%.

Along with a volatility expansion, as typical, we are seeing stock prices trend down.

My leveraged exposure to the long term U.S. Treasuries has offered an asymmetric hedge in recently. The long term U.S. Treasuries don’t always play out this way, but this time we’ve benefited from their uptrend and some negative correlation with stocks.

Gold is another alternative used as a hedge exhibiting relative strength and time-series momentum.

 If this is just a short term correction, we should see some buying interest near this point or a little lower. If last month’s lows are taken out, this may be the early stage of a larger decline.

We were well-positioned in advance this time, so we’ll see how it all plays out.

 

Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical.

Mike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor focused on asymmetric risk-reward and absolute return strategies and provides investment advice and portfolio management only to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any security. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or any recommendations made by the firm. Any opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions change.  Do not make any investment decisions based on such information as it is subject to change. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. Use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Global Macro observations and the period of indecision ends with an upside breakout in stocks

In the last observation, The stock market is in a period of indecision that it will break out of I shared:

Looking at the price trend of the S&P 500 index over the past six months, today’s 1.4% move so far has the trend tapping the upper end of the range. I encluded this chart last Thursday:

asymmetric risk reward return stocks

Here we are a week later, and sure enough, this stock index broke out of the range.

stock market spx spy trend

Of course, past performance doesn’t assure future results, so while this upside breakout is positive, it isn’t without some risks and potential headwinds.

I hedged off some of my market risks, based on pattern recognition hedging the price trend could once again fall back to the lower red line. Of course, my exits on these hedges are predefined, as always, so none of the following global macro observations have any real tactical decision-making authority.

When I enter a position, I predetermine at what price I’ll exit if it becomes a loser or overtime, a laggard.

I’m no economist, so I rarely mention any economic data trends as they don’t lead to actionable tactical signals to buy or sell. However, one of the economy’s strongest segments may be showing signs of weakening: job growth, and it seems important enough to mention. On the global macro front, it seems like the market wasn’t concerned about employment data, and for now, it was right. 

In the big picture from a global macro perspective, the probabilities of a recession are trending higher, earnings growth is lagging, and business and manufacturing sentiment are trending lower. These may be necessary issues the U.S. has to deal with to get through the trade war with China.

On the other hand consumer confidence, spending, and employment have been able to withstand difficult conditions and recover. Up until now, the consumer and employment has been the bright spot. From this point forward, any weaknesss in consumer spending, confidence, and employment is a risk. Momentum in job growth has turned down from a cyclical peak this year, so I’m guessing it’s something that may become an issue eventually. When it comes to global macro data, there’s always something to worry about, so I don’t make my decisions with it.

Today’s employment data was a little better than expected, so it’s a driver of today’s stock market upside breakout. As past performance never guarantees the future, it may be different next time.

Until then, the stock market has indeed broken out of its coil and is sprung up.

 

Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical.

Mike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor focused on asymmetric risk-reward and absolute return strategies and provides investment advice and portfolio management only to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any security. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or any recommendations made by the firm. Any opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions change.  Do not make any investment decisions based on such information as it is subject to change. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. Use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The value of technical analysis of stock market trends

Someone asked; how do you use technical analysis (charting) as an investment manager?

I’ll share a simple and succinct example.

Below is a chart of a popular stock market index. What do you see when you look at it?

I see an overall uptrend based on this time frame, which is only year-to-date.

I see it’s experiencing a normal-looking interruption in the short term, so far.

As such, I’m looking for signs of which direction it’s going to move, by observing which direction it does move.

Without adding a single “technical indicator” for statistical or quantitative analysis, I see the stock market using this proxy has been drifting generally sideways since February.

spy spx ytd trend following

However, it has made higher highs and higher lows, so it’s a confirmed uptrend.

Looking closer, are shorter term, I see the green highlighted area is also in a non-trending state, bound by a range. I’m looking for it to break out; up or down.

setting stop loss for stocks

If it breaks down, I will look for it to pause around the red line I drew, because it’s the prior low as well as an area of trading before that. I would expect to see some support here, where buyer demand could overcome selling pressure.

If it doesn’t, I’d say:

Look out below!

Do I trade-off this? Nope.

Am I telling you to? Nope.

But, if I wanted to trade off it, I could. This is an index and the index is an unmanaged index and cannot be invested in directly. But, for educational purposes, assume I could enter here. Before I did, I would decide my exit would be at least a break below the red line. Using that area as an exit to say “the trend has changed from higher lows to lower lows, which is down, I’ll exit if it stays below the line.

Of course, the same strategy can be applied quantitatively into a computerized trading system. I could create an algorithm that defines the red line as an equation and create a computer program that would alert me to its penetration.

This is a succinct and simple glimpse into concepts of how I created my systems.

I hope you find it useful.

I developed skills at charting before I created quantitative systems. If someone doesn’t believe in either method, they probably lack the knowledge and skill to know better.

Let me know if we can help!

Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical.

Mike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor and provides investment advice and portfolio management exclusively to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any security. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or any recommendations made by the firm. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. Use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.

Investor fear has been driving the stock market down

I like to observe the return drivers of price trends. Though I primarily focus on the direction of the price trend and volatility, I also consider what drives the price trend.

Yesterday I suggested the stock market was at a point of pause and possible reversal back up in The stock market is holding its breadth… for now.  I shared some examples of how the percent of stocks in a positive trend had declined to a point that could indicate the selling in the near term could be drying up.

So far, today’s sharp reversal up seems to confirm at least a short term low.

Up until today, the S&P 500 stock index was down about -6% off its high. In May it dropped -8% before reversing back up to a new high. I express these drawdowns in the % off high chart below. This is year-to-date, since January 1.

Just for reference, this -6% decline looks more similar to May when I expand the time frame to 1 year instead of just year-to-date. We also see the October to December waterfall decline was a much deeper -20%.

Of course, if you look close enough, the pattern prior to the much steeper and deeper part of that fall looks similar to now, with the price trend testing the prior low, recovering, then falling sharply another -10%. I’m not pointing this out to say it will happen again, but instead that it’s always a possibility, so risk management is essential.

What is driving this decline?

Fear.

It’s that simple.

Some are afraid of another recession signaled by an inverted yield curve, others of the Trump Tweets, others by the Fed lowering interest rates or not doing it fast enough. I’ve heard some hedge funds are afraid China will invade Hong Kong, others are concerned of the China tariffs. Some people probably wake up afraid and fear everything that can possibly happen, as such, they experience it as if it did.

I prefer to face my fears and do something about them.

Investors have reached an extreme level of fear in the past few weeks as evidenced by the -6% decline in the stock index. We can also see this reflected in the investor sentiment poll. The AII Sentiment Survey shows optimism is at an unusually low level and pessimism is at an unusually high level for the 2nd consecutive week.

investor sentiment extreme trading

Such extreme levels of investor sentiment often proceed trend reversals. So, these extreme fear measures along with the breadth measures I shared yesterday, I’m not surprised to see the stock market reverse up sharply today.

Another interesting measure is the Fear & Greed Index, which is a combination of multiple sentiment indicators believed to measure investor sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index has reached the “Extreme Fear” level, so by this measure, fear is driving prices.

fear greed index

Over time, we can see how the Fear & Greed Index has oscillated up and down, swinging from fear to greed and back to fear again. I highlight the current level has reached the low point it typically does before it reverses up again, with the exceptions of the sharp panics in 2018.

advisor money manager using fear greed index extreme behavior

I have my own proprietary investor sentiment models, but here I share some that are simple and publicly available. I’m not suggesting you trade-off of these, as I don’t, either, but instead use them to help modify your investor behavior. For example, rather than use these indicators to signal offense or defense, investors may use them to alert them to their own herding behavior. Most of the time, we are better off being fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

These measures aren’t quite robust enough to be timing indicators by themselves, my signals are coming from other systems and I’m using these to illustrate what’s driving it.

Over the past 12 months, as of right now the stock index is up 2.48%. That’s including today’s 1.5% gain.

Only time will tell if it holds the line, but as I’ve zoomed in to a 3-month time frame, we can see the first line of support that needs to hold.

We are long and strong at this point, so;

Giddy up!

 

Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical.

Mike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor and provides investment advice and portfolio management exclusively to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any security. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or any recommendations made by the firm. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. Use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.

Giddy up…

As expected, the U.S. stock market declined briefly, then found enough buying enthusiasm to drive prices to a new breakout above the March high.

As I concluded in Strong stock market momentum was accompanied by broad participation:

“…though we shouldn’t be surprised to see short term weakness, we could suppose the longer term trend still has room to run.”

As we see in the chart below, while the U.S. stock market is trending with absolute momentum, the strongest relative momentum has been in other countries around the globe.

global macro asymmetric risk reward .jpg

Though my short term momentum systems signaled weeks ago the current uptrend may become exhausted and it did, the reversal back up and continuation since then appears bullish.

At this point, it appears some global stock markets are in uptrends and may have more room to run. For asymmetric risk/reward, I cut my losses short and let the winners run on.

Giddy up…

 

Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical.

Mike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor and provides investment advice and portfolio management exclusively to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and are not specific advice, research, or buy or sell recommendations for any individual. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information provided is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. Use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.

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