The stocks in the S&P 500 index that are above their 50 day moving average has stopped at the same level it reversed in May. The percent of stocks in up or downtrends is a measure of breadth, which means how actively stocks are participating in uptrends and downtrends.
At 30% of stocks above their short term trend line isn’t nearly as washed-out as they were last December, we’ll see if this is the end of the selling pressure.
The percent of stocks above their 200 day moving average is at 54%, also around the same level as the May correction.
But, notice that is nowhere near the December washout, which as an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity.
Of course, nothing is more important than the actual price trend itself. In the really short term, today paused at the low two weeks ago. If this line doesn’t hold, the next one is the May low. So, we shouldn’t be really surprised to see it fall to that level.
So far this stock index is -6% off it’s high, a normal correction within an ongoing uptrend.
So, if this is just a normal pullback within an ongoing uptrend, we should soon see the enthusiasm to buy overwhelm the desire to sell. Otherwise, the stock market will obviously fall some more, and that would still be within a normal decline.
Fortunately, I anticipated this volatility and some decline and shifted to defensive stocks and some bonds to help avoid some of the declines. I also had some hedges early on that helped offset the initial losses in long exposure.
I hear there’s a lot of noise and many geopolitical themes getting the blame, but it’s really just the market, doing what it does. Something and someone always gets the blame. If you believe that’s the real driver, you aren’t paying enough attention to my observations.
We’ll see how it all unfolds from here.
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