Systematic Global Macro

For an example of a Systematic Global Macro strategy, visit: http://www.asymmetrymanagedaccounts.com/global-tactical/

What is Systematic Global Macro?

Systematic is “done or acting according to a fixed plan or system; methodical”.

When we speak of systematic trading, some use the word “systematic” to imply “mechanical” which is one extreme. A purely mechanical system or systematic process would suggest our computer program makes the entry, exit, and size decisions and then enters the trade automatically with the broker. While some absolutely execute their strategy that way, others execute their systems systematically, but the actual portfolio manager executes the trades.

What does Systematic mean?

The word in general use in the meaning ‘done according to a plan or system‘ is systematic, and one can equally speak of systematic learning (i.e. following a system or set of principles) and a systematic search (i.e. one done methodically); the second is only a slight extension in meaning of the first.

In portfolio management, we define ‘systematic’ as: Having clearly defined rules that can be defined mathematically (quantitatively, as an equation) and tested empirically (derived from observation or experiment: empirical results that supported the hypothesis. Verifiable or provable by means of observation or experiment).

‘Systematic’, then, can refer to a systematic research process of testing in search of answers or systematic trading.

What is a Global Macro?

Wikipedia defines Global Macro as the strategy of investing, on a large scale, around the world using economic theory to justify the decision making process. The strategy is typically based on forecasts and analysis about interest rates trends, movements in the general flow of funds, political changes, government policies, inter-government relations, and other broad systemic factors.
Investopedia defines Global Macro as a hedge fund strategy that bases its holdings – such as long and short positions in various equity, fixed income, currency, and futures markets – primarily on overall economic and political views of various countries (macroeconomic principles).

From both of those definitions, we notice that Global Macro is “global” in that it has an opportunity set across a wide range of markets and the “macro” typically refers to “macroeconomics”. Macroeconomics refers to the structure, performance, behavior, and decision-making of the entire global economy. We also notice the mention of “futures” to gain access to some markets. Historically, the investor or trader would need to trade in futures contracts to gain exposure to certain markets like currency and commodities, but today traders can gain such access with exchange traded securities (like ETFs, ETNs, etc.).
Hedge Fund Research, Inc. has some excellent definitions. They define Global Macro as Investment Managers that trade a broad range of strategies in which the investment process is predicated on movements in underlying economic variables and the impact these have on equity, fixed income, hard currency and commodity markets. Managers employ a variety of techniques, both discretionary and systematic analysis, combinations of top down and bottom up theses, quantitative and fundamental approaches and long and short term holding periods. Although some strategies employ RV (Relative Value) techniques, Macro strategies are distinct from RV strategies in that the primary investment thesis is predicated on predicted or future movements in the underlying instruments, rather than realization of a valuation discrepancy between securities. In a similar way, while both Macro and equity hedge managers may hold equity securities, the overriding investment thesis is predicated on the impact movements in underlying macroeconomic variables may have on security prices, as opposed to Relative Value, in which the fundamental characteristics of the company are the most significant and integral to investment thesis.
Within Macro, they draw distinctions for: Systematic Diversified strategies have investment processes typically as function of mathematical, algorithmic and technical models, with little or no influence of individuals over the portfolio positioning. Strategies which employ an investment process designed to identify opportunities in markets exhibiting trending or momentum characteristics across individual instruments or asset classes. Strategies typically employ quantitative process which focus on statistically robust or technical patterns in the return series of the asset, and typically focus on highly liquid instruments and maintain shorter holding periods than either discretionary or mean reverting strategies. Although some strategies seek to employ counter trend models, strategies benefit most from an environment characterized by persistent, discernible trending behavior. Systematic Diversified strategies typically would expect to have no greater than 35% of portfolio in either dedicated currency or commodity exposures over a given market cycle.
Another Global Macro is Multi-Strategy strategies which employ components of both Discretionary and Systematic Macro strategies, but neither exclusively both. Strategies frequently contain proprietary trading influences, and in some cases contain distinct, identifiable sub-strategies, such as equity hedge or equity market neutral, or in some cases a number of sub-strategies are blended together without the capacity for portfolio level disaggregation. Strategies employ an investment process is predicated on a systematic, quantitative evaluation of macroeconomic variables in which the portfolio positioning is predicated on convergence of differentials between markets, not necessarily highly correlated with each other, but currently diverging from their historical levels of correlation. Strategies focus on fundamental relationships across geographic areas of focus both inter and intra-asset classes, and typical holding periods are longer than trend following or discretionary strategies.
Active Trading strategies utilize active trading methods, typically with high frequency position turnover or leverage; these may employ components of both Discretionary and Systematic Macro strategies. Strategies may contain distinct, identifiable sub-strategies, such as equity hedge or equity market neutral, or in some cases a number of sub-strategies are blended together without the capacity for portfolio level disaggregation. Strategies employ an investment process based on systematic, quantitative evaluation of macroeconomic variables in which the portfolio positioning is predicated on convergence of differentials between markets, not necessarily highly correlated with each other, but currently diverging from their historical levels of correlation. Strategies focus on fundamental relationships across geographic areas of focus both inter and intra-asset classes, and typical holding periods are shorter than trend following or discretionary strategies. Diversified Trading strategies are distinct from other macro in that Trading strategies characteristically emphasize rapid market response to new information and high volume of turnover in liquid but frequently volatile and unstable market positions.

For an example of a Systematic Global Macro strategy, visit: ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical

 

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