In Following the Trend of Inflation and Risk of Bonds I mentioned we are closely monitoring the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread because an inverted yield curve has a track record of predicting future recessions 6 – 24 months in advance.
The 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread is declining fast and has now trended to 0.24%, meaning the 2 Year U.S. Treasury Yield is nearly the same yield as the Year 10 U.S. Treasury Yield.
For more context, read: How We’ll Know if a Recession is Imminent.
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