Sector Trends are Driving Equity Returns

Sector Trends are Driving Equity Returns

In Growth Stocks have Stronger Momentum than Value in 2018 I explained the divergence between the return of the two styles of Growth and Value. I suggest the real return driver between size and style is primarily the index or ETF sector exposure. To be sure, we’ll take a look inside.

As I said before, the reason I care about such divergence is when return streams spread out and become distinctive, we have more opportunity to carve out the parts we want from the piece I don’t. When a difference between price trends is present, it provides more opportunity to capture the positive trend and avoid the negative trend if it continues.

Continuing with the prior observation, I am going to use the same Morningstar size and style ETFs.

Recall the year-to-date price trends are distinctive. Large, mid, and small growth is notably exhibiting positive momentum over large, mid, and small value.

growth stock momentum over value morningtar small mid large cap

To understand how these factors interact, let’s look at their sector exposure. But first, let’s determine the sector relative momentum leaders and laggards for 2018.

The leaders are Consumer Discretionary (stocks like Netflix $NFLX and Amazon $AMZN), Information Technology (Nvidia $NVDA and Google $GOOG). In third place is Energy and then Healthcare. The laggards are Consumer Staples, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, which are actually down for the year. Clearly, exposure to Consumer Discretionary and Information Technolgy and avoiding most of the rest would lead to more positive asymmetry.

sector trend returns 2018

Below we see strongest momentum Large Growth is heavily weighted (41%) in Technology. The second highest sector weight is Consumer Discretionary, and then Healthcare is third. Large-Cap Growth is the leader just because it has the most exposure in the top sectors.

iShares Morningstar Large-Cap Growth ETF

On the other hand, Large Value, which is down -3% YTD, has its main exposure in the lagging Financial and Consumer Staples sectors.

iShares Morningstar Large-Cap Value ETF

Dropping down to the Mid-Cap Growth style and size, similar to Large-Cap Growth, we see Information Technology and Healthcare are half of the ETFs exposure.

iShares Morningstar Mid-Cap Growth ETF

We are starting to see a trend here. Much like Large-Cap Value, the Mid-Cap Value has top holdings in Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities sectors.

 

iShares Morningstar Mid-Cap Value ETF

Can you guess the top sectors of Small-Cap Growth? Like both Large and Mid Growth, Small-Cap Growth top sector exposures are Information Technology, Healthcare, and Consumer Discretionary.

iShares Morningstar Small-Cap Growth ETF

And to no surprise, the Financial sector 26% of Small-Cap Value.

iShares Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF

So, Information Technology, Healthcare, and most Consumer Discretionary tend to be more growth-oriented sectors. Financials, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Real Estate, that is, the higher yielding dividend paying types, tend to be classified as Value. Each sector has both Growth and Value stocks within them, but on average, some sectors tend to include more Growth stocks or more Value stocks.

Value stocks are generally defined as shares of undervalued companies with lower prospects for growth.

A growth stock has higher earnings per share and often trade at a higher multiple since the expectation of future earnings is high. Growth stocks usually don’t pay a dividend, as the company would prefer to reinvest retained earnings back into the company to grow.

The Information Technology sector includes companies that are engaged in the creation, storage, and exchange of digital information. The Information Technology sector offers potential exposure to growth with the emergence of cloud computing, mobile computing, and big data.

Another Growth sector is Consumer Discretionary sector manufactures things or provides services that people want but don’t necessarily need, such as high-definition televisions, new cars, and family vacations. Consumer Discretionary sector performance is closely tied to the strength of the overall economy. Consumer Discretionary tends to perform well at the beginning of a recovery when interest rates are low but can lag during economic slowdowns

The Health Care sector is a Growth sector involved in the production and delivery of medicine and health care-related goods and services. Healthcare companies typically have more stable demand, so they are less sensitive to the economic cycle, though it tends to perform best in the later stages of the economic cycle.

It turns out, the three primary Growth sectors that tend to best strongest at the late stage of an economic cycle have been the recent leaders.

Consumer Staples sector consists of companies that provide goods and services that people use on a daily basis, like food, clothing, or other personal products.

The Financial sector is businesses such as banking and brokerage, mortgage finance, and insurance which are sensitive to changes in the economy and interest rates. They tent to perform best at the beginning of a business cycle.

This is why I prefer to focus my U. S. equity exposure on sectors and maybe the strongest momentum stocks within those sectors. Many traditional asset allocations use style and size to get their exposure to the stock market, but as a tactical portfolio manager, I prefer to get more specific into the trending sectors and their individual stocks.

 

Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical.

You can follow ASYMMETRY® Observations by click on on “Get Updates by Email” on the top right or follow us on Twitter.

The observations shared in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

 

 

 

 

 

Asymmetric force direction and size determines trend

In physical science, force is used to describe the motion of a push or pull. Newton’s first law of motion – sometimes referred to as the law of inertia. Newton’s first law of motion is stated as:

“An object at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force.” —Newton’s First Law of Motion

Unbalanced force? well well, there’s another asymmetry.

A push or pull is a force. To define a force, we must know its direction and size. It works similar to supply and demand on market prices. If there is enough size in a direction, a price will move in that direction. If there isn’t enough price size in a direction, the price will stay the same.

There are two kinds of forces:

Symmetrical (balanced) forces are equal in size, but opposite in direction. Symmetric forces are balanced, so they lack the direction and size to cause a change a motion. The push and pull are equal and offsets each other. Applying the concept of force to price trends in the market, when balanced forces act on a market price at rest, the market price will not move. When buying enthusiasm and selling pressure are the same, the price will stay the same.

Asymmetrical (unbalanced) forces are not equal and are opposite in direction, so they cause a change in the motion. The size of one directional force is greater than the other, so it’s going to trend in that direction. Some examples of these unbalanced forces can be observed in physical science.

More than one force can be acting at the same time, so the forces are combined into the net force. The net force is the combination of all the forces acting on a trend. The net force determines the direction. If forces are trending in opposite directions, then the net force is the difference between the forces, and it will trend in the direction of the larger force. You can probably see how that is visible in a chart of a price trend.

If buyers are willing to buy more than sellers are willing to sell, the buying pressure is a force that forces up the price until it gets high enough to push sellers to sell.

If sellers are ready to sell more than buyers are willing to buy, the selling pressure is a force that pulls down the price until it gets low enough to pull in buyers to buy.

So, Newton’s first law of motion and inertia is related to Economics 101: When the size of the force of buyers or sellers is larger in one direction, the price will trend. We can observe who is more dominant by simply looking at a price trend chart or quantifying it in a trading system.

 

Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical.

You can follow ASYMMETRY® Observations by click on on “Get Updates by Email” on the top right or follow us on Twitter.

Investment results are probabilistic, never a sure thing. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

 

 

Each of us tends to think we see things as they are, that we are objective. But this is not the case. We see the world, not as it is, but as we are—or, as we are conditioned to see it. When we open our mouths to describe what we see, we in effect describe ourselves, our perceptions, our paradigms.”

–  The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People: Powerful Lessons in Personal Change by Stephen R. Covey, Quote Page 28 (2004)

Low Volatility Downside was the Same

In Low Volatility and Managed Volatility Smart Beta is Really Just a Shift in Sector Allocation I ended with:

“Though the widening range of prices up and down gets our attention, it isn’t really volatility that investors want to manage so much as it is the downside loss of capital.

As a follow-up, below we observe the  PowerShares S&P 500® Low Volatility Portfolio declined in value about -12% from its high just as the SPDRs S&P 500® did. So, the lower volatility weighting didn’t help this time as the “downside loss of capital ” was the same.

SPLV PowerShares S&P 500® Low Volatility Portfolio

Source: http://www.ycharts.com

The Southern Voice: What You Don’t Know About the South and the Southern Accent

Asymmetric Information is when someone has superior or more knowledge than others about a topic. The Illusion of Asymmetric Insight occurs when people perceive their knowledge of others to surpass other people’s knowledge of themselves. An asymmetric advantage goes beyond a normal advantage of knowledge into the realm of having asymmetric information and knowing things others do not.

Over the past few weeks there has been much in the media about the Confederate Battle flag and misinformation about the South. As it turns out, it seems many people may be more ignorant about these things than they believe they are. So you think the “Southern Accent” is bad English? au contraire.

In Southern American English, Wikipedia says:

“The Southern U.S. dialects make up the largest accent group in the United States”

Wikipedia cites PBS as the source: “Do You Speak American: What Lies Ahead”. Specifically, that article says: 

  • Due to a huge migration to the South and Southwest and the national appeal of country music, Southern speech is now the largest accent group in the United States.
  • The dominant form is what linguists call Inland Southern…

As a Southerner myself, I have always known my Southern dialect is derived from my European ancestors. If you aren’t from the South or weren’t taught its history, you may not realize that. Most of the settlers in Appalachia and the South came from Scotland, Ireland, the British Isles. If you know anything about those areas and their people, you can probably see how they may have been attracted to the mountains of Tennessee, north Georgia, and North Carolina. Its geography is similar to their motherland. Oh, and they made whiskey and moonshine.

Researchers have noted that the dialect retains a lot of vocabulary with roots in Scottish “Elizabethan English” owing to the make-up of the early European settlers to the area.

Source: “The Dialect of the Appalachian People”. Wvculture.org. Retrieved 2012-11-08.

Oh, and they sang fiddle songs like Rocky Top! This is the origin of what has evolved today as “country music”. They blended popular songs, Irish and Celtic fiddle tunes, and various musical traditions from European immigrant communities.

That leads to this very interesting video clip from the History Channel “You Don’t Know Dixie” explaining the many versions of the Southern Accent:

Want to learn more about the South? search for the History Channel show “You Don’t Know Dixie” at your cable provider. I found it on Verizon and recorded it. Or, it’s available at Amazon.

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