What I’m reading into the new year

“Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it”

One of the advantages of writing observations in real-time is the ability to go back and read them with perfect hindsight.

We know that global asset allocations of varying mixes of stocks and bonds have had a strong year in 2019.

global tactical asset allocation performance 2019 asymmetric return

Most of the gains were achieved in the first four months. Here are the return streams through May 1, 2019, for different targeted allocations.

Since May 1st, global asset allocation portfolios experienced much more volatility and less capital gain.

How did such a great year for stocks and bonds begin?

At the end of a year like this, I like to reflect on this time a year ago, especially since the market state is so radically different between now and then.

If we want to learn from the past and our experiences, it’s essential to revisit things from time to time.

A year ago, we celebrated Christmas with a stunning waterfall decline in stocks.

Today, we’ve enjoyed an equally stunning guiser in gains.

So, what has changed?

To gain an understanding, here is what I’m reading into the new year.

December 17, 2019:

What’s going to happen next for the stock market?

December 20, 2019:

The stock market has reached a short-term extreme as investor sentiment indicates fear

December 23, 2019:

An exhaustive analysis of the U.S. stock market

December 24, 2019:

An exhaustive stock market analysis… continued

January 1, 2019:

Investor Sentiment into the New Year 2019

If you read all of them, you’ll be surprised how much you learn about market trends,  behavior, volatility, and internals.


Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical.

Mike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor focused on asymmetric risk-reward and absolute return strategies and provides investment advice and portfolio management only to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any security. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or any recommendations made by the firm. Any opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions change.  Do not make any investment decisions based on such information as it is subject to change. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data are deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. The views and opinions expressed in ASYMMETRY® Observations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect a position of  Shell Capital Management, LLC. The use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.






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