This is how big of an overshoot the COVID projection was

June 10, 2020 By in Asymmetric Observation

The last time I wrote about The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) COVID-19 Projections for the United States was in #FloridaMorons is trending on Twitter, so let’s take a look at the Florida Coronavirus trends on April 18th.

I said:

Models Misbehaving

I’m sure there will be no shortage of criticism of the models attempting to predict things like hospital resource us such as the COVID-19 Projections from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) that were widely used. The model had many assumptions, as any model would, and sometimes models get it wrong. Keep in mind, this model assumed social distancing, too, so it wasn’t a model misbehaving from our success in flattening the curve.

Below is an image I saved on April 11th, already showing Florida hospital resource use was improving.

Here it is today. Their educated guesses overestimated resource use, though it wasn’t a big surprised to me, since I paid attention to the wide range of possibilities they illustrated.

How inaccurate were they?

On March 27, 2020 the projected infections was 259, 204, but the confirmed infections was 16,576.

The brown line at the bottom is the confirmed infections, the higher line is their projections.

COVID – 19 isn’t over.

It’s still spreading, but not nearly as they predicted.

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