On November 16th, about two weeks ago, I shared an observation in “Periods of low volatility are often followed by volatility expansions” that implied and realized volatility had reached such a low level we should expect to see a volatility expansion.
I also pointed out investor sentiment had been reaching excessive optimism. The type of excessive optimism we normally see when less-skilled investors have an urge to buy stocks instead of a hedge or sell them to reduce risk.
It was plenty early, as expected, which is better than being late.
When I share these observations, the intent is to highlight an extreme trend or cycle I expect to shift the other direction. In this case, I saw the range of prices was getting tight, suggesting to me there was little indecision in the market, which also implies confidence and complacency. I say this, having been monitoring these market dynamics daily and professionally for over two decades.
The chart I included showing the S&P 500 price trend peaking at the upper band of its range and its average true range at what I consider an extreme low go included in MarketWatch, then Barron’s, and then today The Daily Shot in the Wall Street Journal.
Since that chart is now two weeks old, here’s an update. The S&P 500 has trended down about -1.2% the past two sessions and its price is back inside the volatility bands. However, notice the bands have contracted since October, so I say again: Periods of low volatility are usually followed by volatility expansions.
So, stay tuned, a volatility expansion with at least a minor price correction seems imminent.
Prepare yourself accordingly.
Mike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor in Florida, Tennessee, and Texas focused on asymmetric risk-reward and absolute return strategies and provides investment advice and portfolio management only to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any security. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or any recommendations made by the firm. Any opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions change. Do not make any investment decisions based on such information as it is subject to change. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data are deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. The use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.