What’s driving the stock market down

On Monday, I suggested in This is what the stock market will focus on next the stock market would start reacting to the uptrend in COVID 19 cases.

Indeed, the stock market indexes seem to be reflecting something negative today.

I’m guessing it may be the uptrend in new cases per day. For example, Florida has reached a significant new high.


As I’ve been saying for the past two weeks, the new uptrend breakout in cases per day is NOT driven by more testing. Below is a sample of the states with the highest new cases, and as you can see, the bars show the percent increase in new cases and testing.


This is NOT the kind of asymmetry I like to see.

Considering the elevated risk level in the stock market by my measures, it is likely we’ll see more downside for stocks.

So, we have been positioned in long U.S. Treasuries for over a week.

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Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global TacticalMike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor focused on asymmetric risk-reward and absolute return strategies and provides investment advice and portfolio management only to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any security. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or any recommendations made by the firm. Any opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions change.  Do not make any investment decisions based on such information as it is subject to change. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data are deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. The views and opinions expressed in ASYMMETRY® Observations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect a position of  Shell Capital Management, LLC. The use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.