Global Macro: Unemployment and jobless claims make 2008 look good

US Initial Jobless Claims, provided by the US Department of Labor, provides data on how many new people have filed for unemployment benefits in the previous week.

We can use initial jobless claims to gauge the economy with respect to employment. As more new people file for unemployment benefits, fewer individuals in the economy have jobs.

Historically, initial jobless claims tended to reach peaks towards the end of recessionary periods such as on March 21, 2009 with a value of 661,000 new filings.

The initial jobless claims at the end of the “global financial crisis” is nothing compared to what we are seeing today.

US Initial Jobless Claims is at a current level of 3.839 million, down from 4.442 million last week and up from 230,000.0 one year ago. Over 30 million Americans have no filed for unemployment.

Continued jobless claims is about 18 million.

It’s in uncharted territory. We’ve never seen job losses to this magnitude.

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Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global TacticalMike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor focused on asymmetric risk-reward and absolute return strategies and provides investment advice and portfolio management only to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any security. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or any recommendations made by the firm. Any opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions change.  Do not make any investment decisions based on such information as it is subject to change. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data are deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. The views and opinions expressed in ASYMMETRY® Observations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect a position of  Shell Capital Management, LLC. The use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.

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