Investor pessimism shifted to an unusually high level for the time this year. It spiked up from 24% bearish to 41%.
Bearish investor sentiment is now as high as it was in April after the stock declined a second time and formed a double bottom. Interestingly, this time the stock market is only down about 6% from its high. The last time investors were so bearish it had reached -10%, for the second time.
Investors may be turning more bearish more quickly since the stock market remains in a drawdown. Investors tend to feel the wrong thing at the wrong time at extremes so this could be a bullish signal.
Investor optimism declined more moderately and still remains within its normal long-term range. We can see how optimism trend up to an extreme in January as the stock index reached an all-time new high and investors were becoming euphoric.
Investor sentiment measures show that investors do the wrong thing at the wrong time as their beliefs about future stock market returns reach the more extreme levels.
A good investment program isn’t enough to help clients reach their objectives.
We necessarily have to help them avoid the typical misbehavior the majority of investors fall in to.
Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical.
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The observations shared in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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