US coronavirus new cases per day are in a downtrend, and trend in US hospitalizations is following the downtrend in new cases.
Taking a closer look, here is the past 30 days.
US cases per day is -31% off its high and US currently hospitalized is down about -5% from its peak.
Sure, the reported data has its fair share if issues, but we are probably observing a large enough sample size of the population to draw meaningful statistical inference.
Of course, nothing is more important than deaths per day, so here is a logarithmic chart. I’m using a logarithmic scale to respond to the skewness of the larger values by normalizing the scale of the trend based on percent change.
The equation for COVID is new tests administered drives new reported cases, which leads to hospitalizations with a lag, and then deaths lag hospitalizations.
Since we are observing a trend change from a peak level, we can expect to see deaths peak in about two weeks.
Of course, the trends of this virus are driven by human behavior.
So, the future direction depends on all of us, and each of us individually.
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