We should see COVID-19 deaths peak in the next two weeks

US coronavirus new cases per day are in a downtrend, and trend in US hospitalizations is following the downtrend in new cases.

Taking a closer look, here is the past 30 days.

US cases per day is -31% off its high and US currently hospitalized is down about -5% from its peak.

Sure, the reported data has its fair share if issues, but we are probably observing a large enough sample size of the population to draw meaningful statistical inference.

Of course, nothing is more important than deaths per day, so here is a logarithmic chart. I’m using a logarithmic scale to respond to the skewness of the larger values by normalizing the scale of the trend based on percent change.

The equation for COVID is new tests administered drives new reported cases, which leads to hospitalizations with a lag, and then deaths lag hospitalizations.

Since we are observing a trend change from a peak level, we can expect to see deaths peak in about two weeks.

Of course, the trends of this virus are driven by human behavior.

So, the future direction depends on all of us, and each of us individually.

Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global TacticalMike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor focused on asymmetric risk-reward and absolute return strategies and provides investment advice and portfolio management only to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any security. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or any recommendations made by the firm. Any opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions change.  Do not make any investment decisions based on such information as it is subject to change. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data are deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. The views and opinions expressed in ASYMMETRY® Observations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect a position of  Shell Capital Management, LLC. The use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.