Unfortunately, we’ll see a pause in reopening as hospitalizations trend up.
Hospitalizations have much further to rise, but they shouldn’t increase as much as cases.
I just got an updated data feed for today. Florida Coronavirus Cases is at a current level of 122,960, up from 114,018 yesterday, and a change of 7.84% from yesterday. Cases increased by 205% this week and 1,050% over the past 30 days.
Florida COVID hospitalizations continue in a 45-degree uptrend.
I continued to reiterate the direction of a trend is important, but so is the rate of change. This new rising rate of change isn’t what we want to see and is a derivative of the reproduction rate.
Daily deaths in Florida, however, continues to oscillate around its mean. I expect this may trend up and follow new cases, but, it will depend on how many of those new cases are younger healthy people who get over it vs. higher-risk people who may not.
Cases relative to tests administered shows us the ratio between the two. As this trend bottomed June 9th and has seen trended up, it tells us the cases relative to tests is increasing. In other words, new cases are showing more momentum than new testing.
THE GOOD NEWS IS: The death rate in FL continues to fall, which is hopefully a reflection of better treatment and/or the virus weakening. I’m guessing some part of it is a function of younger people getting infected and shaking it off.
Life is full of risks and rewards, so we make the best of it by directing and controlling our possibility of loss.
Intelligent people focus on managing the downside, the surprises, the uncertainty, and the risks since the upside of rewards takes care of itself.
At this point, we’ve all been made well aware of how to direct and control our risk to the possibility of loss, so we only have to do it.
As I said last week in This is what the stock market will focus on next, the market indeed focused on these increasing trends. The widely followed stock indexes fell about -3%.
These stock indexes are now down -11% or more off their highs, and the Dow Jones is down -15% from its February high.
I reduced our exposure to stocks to zero a week ago.
Be informed, and prepared, not afraid.
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Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical. Mike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor focused on asymmetric risk-reward and absolute return strategies and provides investment advice and portfolio management only to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any security. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or any recommendations made by the firm. Any opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions change. Do not make any investment decisions based on such information as it is subject to change. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data are deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. The views and opinions expressed in ASYMMETRY® Observations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect a position of Shell Capital Management, LLC. The use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.
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