Quantitative Technical Analysis of the Coronavirus COVID – 19 Trend Shows the Rate of Growth is Slowing

Who would have believed a few months ago the United States of America and most of the world would be shut down over a global pandemic?

Who would have believed if you said Americans would be ordered to stay at home, not have family and friends visit, and to do this “social distancing” thing?

Who would have believed golfers here in Floria at Pelican Golf Club in Belleair would be headline news saying “golfers strolled down the fairways as they would on a normal golf outing” in these United States of America?

Anything is possible, as every new moment is unique, it’s never existed before.

Sure enough, ABC News Tampa Bay:

Florida golfers caught ignoring social distancing rules at golf course

Golf considered ‘essential’ in stay-at-home order

I’m starting to hear some talk about our freedoms as American’s, and I can see how many business owners being forced to shut down their businesses view it.

But, right now we’ve got to hunker down and get through this.

The good news is, it’s working.

Joining TODAY live, Dr. Anthony Fauci says that even though the number of deaths validate that this is a bad week in the coronavirus battle, there are “some glimmers of hope” such as stabilizing numbers of hospitalizations in New York. He says that social distancing and behavior changes are “starting to have a real effect” and that the virus death toll may look “more like 60,000 than the 100,000 to 200,000” initially predicted. He dismisses “conspiracy theories” that coronavirus death tolls are inflated and says he’s “cautiously optimistic” that the country may be able to begin reopening by summer.

Today there were 30659 new cases and 1757 new deaths in the United States

New York remains the epicenter of the US:

799 new deaths. Highest number of new deaths to date.

18,279 hospitalized, with a 200 net increase in the last day (lowest number in the last period).  New ICU admissions: lowest number since March 19.

  • 18 days since the stay at home order in New York
  • 39 days since the first case in New York
  • 80 days since the first case in the US

Here are the hot spots ranked by New Cases in the US from Worldometers:

Next, we rank them by Total Cases per 1 million of population: the trend is correlated to the total cases in these states with New York and the northeast leading the way and Louisiana is the only southern state ranked in the top ten. Georgia is next and even Florida is down there.

When we rank the Tests per 1 million population, however, we also see New York, Louisiana, and other states with a high Total Cases has given more tests per capita of their populations. My home state, Florida, is down there. Florida has tested about 0.8% of the population while New York is 2%. That’s a material difference, so I expect we may see Florida present a higher number of cases if we tested a similar sample size of the population.

Let’s move from ranking tables to observing the trends in charts.

If we look at the trend as a linear chart, New York Coronavirus cases is blowing away the other states with the most cases.

To quantify the trends, however, we instead draw a logarithmic chart to compare then based on rate of change. Now we see the trends normalized by their rate of change, which gives us a better visual of direction and velocity.

I added some more states next, to see the trends are generally trending similarly and their rates of change are correlated. My home state of Tennessee is actually slowing down more.

Looking at the US, the rate of growth continues to slow. It broke the uptrend (red arrow) about two weeks ago as social distancing ramped up more.

I’ve been concerned with New York as the epicenter since we have investment management clients there as well as many people and companies we do business with. I guess it’s a good thing trading at the New York Stock Exchange is mostly electronic, rather than traders in the pit shouting our orders. If it weren’t for electronic trading, the stock market would probably be closed.

Hang in there New Yorkers – you’re flattening the curve!

At this rate of change, we’ll see New York curve into a downtrend in the coming weeks.

The northeastern states of NY, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut are flattening the curve. Connecticut, however, not quite as much.

The rate of growth in Florida total cases is rounding off, too.

So, we are observing the flatting of the curve as a result of social distancing.

Let’s hope it declines sharply in the next week or so before the citizens get too restless.

I’m not thrilled with the US death rate. US Coronavirus Death Rate is at 3.43%.

US Coronavirus Death Rate is at 3.43%, but so far it’s still materially less than other major countries and the world death rate, which is about 6%, according to the Johns Hopkins Department of Civil and Systems Engineering Coronavirus Tracker data.

Around the world, Italy is another country that is struggling, but their percentage change in recovering was their best change today.

Now that we have more data, I’m also monitoring Coronavirus Recoveries. Our complete data from other countries comes in around 10 PM at night, so I’ll have to wait for the next observations to share more detail on Coronavirus Recoveries. Here is what we have based on yesterday, expect we already have Italy. Recoveries is the trend we want to see rising with high momentum, and I’m happy to share the World, US, and Italy are in recovery uptrends and the US recoveries have high velocity.

I hope everyone has a wonderful long Easter weekend, Good Friday, and Passover. As a Christian, it’s Easter for me. Christianity’s most important day has similar main points as Passover. Both holidays face head-on the daunting power of death—and both announce God’s greater power of life.

Passover is a celebration of spring, of birth and rebirth, of a journey from slavery to freedom, and of taking responsibility for yourself, the community, and the world.

This year, it’s best to focus on the similarities between Easter and Passover. It’s not just that the Last Supper was a Passover Seder. Both holidays are about the dead rising to new life.

Wondering about the stock market? check out: What’s going to happen next with the stock market?

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Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global TacticalMike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor focused on asymmetric risk-reward and absolute return strategies and provides investment advice and portfolio management only to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any security. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or any recommendations made by the firm. Any opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions change.  Do not make any investment decisions based on such information as it is subject to change. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data are deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. The views and opinions expressed in ASYMMETRY® Observations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect a position of  Shell Capital Management, LLC. The use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.

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