As you know, I do quantitative research of trends, trend changes, and such, which are usually applied to global market trends. I have been studying some quantitative data that appears to front-run COVID – 19 by about a week.

In other words, it appears to have predictive value.

Most of what I’ve seen reported suggests the increase in hospital cases will peak in the next few weeks. Based on what I’m seeing, we may instead observe peak in hospital cases much sooner, as in the next few days.

First, the Observed Illnesses is an index of how severely the population in this area is being affected by influenza-like illness, according to Kinsa Insights.

The next map is The U.S. Health Weather Map, which is a visualization of seasonal illness linked to fever – specifically influenza-like illness, according to Kinsa. What they are calling “atypical illness”, may in some cases be connected to the COVID-19 pandemic. “The aggregate, anonymized data visualized here is a product of Kinsa’s network of Smart Thermometers and the accompanying mobile applications. Kinsa is providing this map and associated charts as a public service.

Kinsa explains on the website:

This chart allows us to compare Kinsa’s observations of the influenza-like illness level in the U.S., in orange and red, against where Kinsa expects them to be, in blue Based on their data, influenza-like illness levels in the U.S. are higher than what we’d expect at this time of year, according to the website.

They go on to explain:

The map shows two key data points:

(1) the illness levels we’re currently observing, and

(2) the degree to which those levels are higher than the typical levels we expect to see at this point in the flu season.

Please note: We are not stating that this data represents COVID-19 activity. However, we would expect to pick up higher-than-anticipated levels of flu-like symptoms in our data in areas where the pandemic is affecting large numbers of people. Taken together with other data points, we believe this data may be a helpful early indicator of where and how quickly the virus is spreading.

Notice in the map above, California is gray now, it was red before. They note: 

Due to widespread social distancing, school closures, stay-at-home orders, etc. influenza-related illness levels are dropping in many regions. In some regions (e.g. CA) they’re dropping below the expected range for this time of year — which reduces the level of atypical illness to zero on our map

I believe this is fascinating and seems to suggest it is likely we’ll see a peak in hospital cases much sooner, as in the next several days. If so, it may also mean Coronavirus passes through faster than many expect. In that case, it would be an unexpected improvement for the economy and stock market, if we aren’t shut down as long.

I like the direction of this trend.

Check out the incredible US Health Weather Map powered by Kinsa Insights. Also see Can Smart Thermometers Track the Spread of the Coronavirus? from The New York Times, which is where I first learned of it.

Let’s see how it trends from here.

I’m going to be sharing some very interesting observations in the weeks ahead, so I encourage you to follow along by entering your email below for notifications.

Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical. Mike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor focused on asymmetric risk-reward and absolute return strategies and provides investment advice and portfolio management only to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any security. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or any recommendations made by the firm. Any opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions change.  Do not make any investment decisions based on such information as it is subject to change. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data are deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. The views and opinions expressed in ASYMMETRY® Observations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect a position of  Shell Capital Management, LLC. The use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.