In Allocation to Stocks and Bonds is Unlikely to Give us What We Want and What You Need to Know About Long Term Bond Trends I suggested that bonds may not provide a crutch in the next bear market.
It seems we are already observing that. So far this year, bond indexes have declined along with other markets like stocks and commodities.
Below is a chart of 4 different bond index ETFs year-to-date. I use actual ETFs since they are tradable and present real-world price trends (though none of this is a suggestion to buy or sell). I drew the chart as “% off high” to show the drawdown – how much they have declined off their previous highest price.
- Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) seeks to track the performance of a broad, market-weighted bond index. Provides broad exposure to U.S. investment grade bonds.
- iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years.
- iShares TIPS Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of inflation-protected U.S. Treasury bonds.
- iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities between seven and ten years.
The long-term U.S. Treasury bonds are down the most, but even the others have declined over -3%. That’s certainly not a large loss over a 9 month period, but bond investors typically expect safety and stability. Asset allocation investors expect bonds to help offset their losses in other market allocations like stocks, commodities, or REITs.
Keep in mind: the Fed hasn’t even started to increase interest rates yet. If you are an asset allocation investor, you have to consider:
What may happen if interest rates do start to increase sharply and that drives down bond prices?
What if both stocks and bonds fall in the next bear market?
Bonds haven’t provided much of a crutch this year for fixed asset allocators…
I believe world markets require active risk management and defining directional trends. For me, that means predefining my risk in advance in each position and across the portfolio.