After yesterday, stock indexes haven’t made much progress in the first seven months of 2014. At the beginning of the year everyone seemed to talk about how much the Dow Jones Industrial Average had gone up, almost as if they could buy it after the fact and get what it did. This year the Dow (DIA in the chart) has gained 1.06%. Interestingly, small company stocks as measured by the Russell 2000 Index (IWM) are down 3%. In Stock Market Peak? A Tale of Two Markets back in May I pointed out the divergence between large company stocks as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and small company stocks. At this late stage of a bull market, the recent negative trend of small company stocks may be an early warning a major peak for stocks could be near. Many are probably surprised that bonds have gained the most so far this year.
In fact, U.S. Long Term Treasuries (TLT) have gained so much more than other global markets that I show it as a separate chart below. Here I drew the same chat as above, but added U.S. Long Term Treasuries (TLT).