Global Macro Observations of Stock and Bond Market Trends and Volatility

The U.S. stock market indices are finally reaching new highs, but momentum indicators show them getting overbought at the same time. Nevertheless, the trend is up and volatility is declining as the trend of the S&P 500, for example, has tightened up with the range of prices not as spread out as it was.

Speaking of volatility, the next chart is an observation of the stock index price trend with the 30 Day Rolling Volatility to see how it interacts. The formula for the 30 Day Rolling Volatility is Standard Deviation of the last 30 percentage changes in Total Return Price x Square-root of 252. YCharts multiplies the standard deviation by the square root of 252 to return an annualized measure. 252 is the number of trading days in a year.

I consider it an observation of realized volatility since it’s a measure of the last 30 percentage changes of price. Here we observe the 30 Day Rolling Volatility has declined recently, though it still isn’t as low as it was a few months ago.

Realized historical volatility is in a contraction, so after it declines we shouldn’t be surprised to see volatility expand again since volaltity is mean-reverting.

It’s an observation that volatility was dynamic, not static, so it’s constantly trending and cycling up and down. Volatility contractions are often followed by volaltity expansions as investors oscillate between the fear of missing out and the fear of losing money.

The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) on the other hand, is a measure of implied volatility based on options prices of the stocks in the S&P 500.  The VIX measures expected volatility. As we see below, the VIX is close to its low around 12 it reached twice this year.

Once again, an indication that we could see a volatility contraction anytime from this starting point. Or, the uptrend in stocks and downtrend in their volatility could continue.

We could look a lot deeper into more measures, such as the VVIX Index, which is an indicator of the expected volatility of the 30-day forward price of the VIX. This volatility drives nearby VIX option prices. CBOE also calculates a term structure of VVIX for different VIX expirations. It’s the vol of implied vol.

At this point, the trend for U.S. stocks is up, and the volaltity is quiet.

At the same time, U.S. stock short term momentum is reaching overbought, long term U.S. treasury bonds are oversold. An example observation is the ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Index. Overall, these bonds are in an uptrend over the past year but have corrected recently. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the long term treasuries find some buying demand here and resume the uptrend. If they don’t, there are prior levels of support for a predefined exit to cut a loss if it doesn’t work out.

Within the U.S. high yielding dividend stocks have shown relative strength and good momentum this year. The trend is seen in the index below.

As seen in the trend of the S&P Global Dividend Opportunities Index, the same is true for global high dividend stocks. 

Looking beyond stocks and bonds, the trend of gold has finally turned up after being flat for over five years.

Gold over the past 10 years shows a strong trend post-2010, a downtrend, then a generally non-trending period for years until recently.

You can probably see why a robust trend following system and risk management is useful for markets including gold. If the 10-year chart didn’t make the point, this chart going back to the 1970s probably will.

There is a time for everything under the sun.

There is a time for offense and time for a defense.

The recent trend in gold is more clear over the one-year time frame.

That’s all for now.

Mike Shell is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical.

Mike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor focused on asymmetric risk-reward and absolute return strategies and provides investment advice and portfolio management only to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any security. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or any recommendations made by the firm. Any opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions change.  Do not make any investment decisions based on such information as it is subject to change. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. Use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.

 

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