Global Macro: Russia was already a bear market

On Monday, the Russia stock market, as measured by the MSCI Russia Capped Index, declined over -8% with the headlines filled with news about their military actions. Based on that index of stocks, the Russian stock market was already in a bear market. Big down days often occur when selling pressure is already present. That’s how good price trend systems can avoid waterfall declines. Selling pressure causes prices to fall and falling prices lead to “serial correlation”. That is, prices decline because people are selling because prices are falling. There isn’t a requirement for a fundamental or economic reason. The reason is behavior: people who experience the decline you see in the chart below get to a point that they “tap out”. They tap out just because they are losing money and they have reached their “Uncle!” point. On Monday, the decline didn’t just stop at -4% because people wanted to cut their losses and that selling pressure pushes the price even lower.

russia stock market bear market

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