The original ASYMMETRY® Observations are now published at ASYMMETRY® Observations on the Shell Capital Management, LLC website. Here are last week’s:

Asymmetry vs. Velocity in Gold and Silver

January 27, 2026

Gold and silver are expressing very different forms of asymmetry. Gold reflects slow-moving structural convexity tied to policy risk, while silver’s explosive moves are driven by liquidity squeezes and regulatory uncertainty. The opportunity isn’t prediction — it’s understanding the risk geometry.

The Asymmetry Problem With Selling Volatility

January 29, 2026

Selling volatility still works—until it doesn’t. The real issue isn’t whether the volatility risk premium exists, but where it’s been competed away, how capital concentration changes the payoff geometry, and why most investors are selling convexity without being paid for it.

When ETF Arbitrage Fails: What SLV’s Record Discount Reveals About Market Structure

January 30, 2026

SLV’s apparent record discount wasn’t about silver being mispriced. It was about arbitrage stepping aside under extreme velocity. When liquidity providers stop enforcing convergence, risk migrates from price into market structure—and that’s where asymmetry flips.

When Arbitrage Opts Out: More on What Happened to the Silver ETF SLV

February 2, 2026

SLV’s record discount wasn’t a mispricing—it was a signal. Volatility surged. Liquidity vanished. Arbitrage stepped aside. ETF structure didn’t break. It reverted to its true condition: conditional.

When Return Drivers Concentrate: The Hidden Risk Inside “Diversified” Trend Portfolios

February 2, 2026

It doesn’t matter how high the return is if the drawdown is so severe you tap out before it’s achieved. The same logic applies to broad diversification—even inside trend-following systems. When return drivers concentrate, portfolios that appear diversified can still experience sharp, asymmetric drawdowns.

Relative Strength is a Measure of Asymmetry

February 2, 2026

RSI isn’t a timing oscillator — it’s an asymmetry measure. Built on average gains divided by average losses, RSI reveals which side of the market is dominant and why upside or downside can persist far longer than intuition expects.