Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues that most so-called “alpha” isn’t real because it ignores the most important variable in investing: survival through time. Strategies that look impressive based on historical averages often conceal a small probability of catastrophic loss. For investors compounding wealth over decades—especially after a liquidity event like selling a business or retirement—those rare losses matter far more than smooth long-term averages. True alpha must endure volatility, uncertainty, and adverse regimes without risking permanent capital impairment.

Read the full article on the Shell Capital blog:
Why Nassim Nicholas Taleb Says Most “Alpha” Isn’t Real
https://shell-capital.com/asymmetry-observations/why-nassim-nicholas-taleb-says-most-alpha-isnt-real