Monthly Archives: July 2023

Here’s What the Federal Reserve is Most Likely to do at Future FOMC Meetings

July 27, 2023 By in Fed Decision, Federal Funds Rate, The Fed (FOMC)

Asymmetry isn’t just about asymmetric risk/reward for asymmetric investment returns, it’s also the probability of one outcome over another when it’s skewed.

I share my latest observation of the Federal Reserve FOMC decision yesterday in the FOMC Meeting Review: Likely the Last Interest Rate Hike.

US Dollar and Gold Trend

July 17, 2023 By in Commodity Trends, Counter trend, Global Directional Trends, Trend Following

See this observation here: US Dollar is in a Downtrend but Statistically Oversold Short-Term as Gold Turns Up

Lower Odds of a US Recession

July 17, 2023 By in Global Macro, Macroeconomics, Systematic Global Macro

See the note:

Goldman Sachs Lowers its US Recession Probability.